The South Caucasus: connectivity initiatives and regional fragmentation

The South Caucasus remains a fragmented region despite recent efforts to reopen transportation and communication links following the Second Karabakh War (2020). This study examines why trilateral regionalism among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia has not materialised to date, focusing on recent connectivity initiatives. Employing a pattern-matching technique, in which empirical findings are compared with theoretical expectations, the article finds support for realist and regional security complex theories. At the same time, constructivist theories help explain how divergent regional identity narratives reinforce fragmentation. The findings indicate that connectivity initiatives alone are insufficient to overcome regional fracture, since durable region-building also relies on shared identity narratives and some convergence in visions of the region’s future.