The road leading apart: majoritarianism and affective polarisation in Hungary

The causal relationship between majoritarian institutional design and affective polarisation was established by numerous recent large-N works; the causal mechanism connecting these remained partially theorised, nevertheless. This article aims to join this research agenda with the within-case analysis of Hungary, a prominent case in the polarisation literature – especially in connection with its recent democratic backsliding. With both the trigger (majoritarian institutional design) and the outcome of interest (high levels of affective polarisation) present, the country’s polarisation trajectory lends itself as a suitable case for theory-building process-tracing. Focusing on institutional factors, the work identifies electoral arrangements, party system concentration, support base consolidation and constitutional flexibility as the primary building blocks of the causal mechanism, while social connections and media environment are analysed as the context underlying the mechanism. Beyond understanding Hungary’s past, the article also reflects on present developments, most notably the rapid rise of Péter Magyar’s TISZA Party, and its implications for the country’s further polarisation trajectory. While the outcome of the upcoming elections is far from certain, the continuation of this polarisation trajectory can be predicted with much greater certainty.