The China-Russia axis and the US-European “grand bargain”

Since Donald Trump assumed the US presidency again in January 2025, trans-Atlantic relations between Washington and Europe have worsened considerably, particularly in the security realm. President Trump’s attempts to rehabilitate Russia and to forge peace in Ukraine by making preemptive concessions to Moscow appear to be motivated in large part by the desire to drive a wedge between Russia and China, since US officials view Beijing as a much more critical challenge to its global dominance than Russia. This article argues, however, that such a strategy, which has contributed to a growing rift in trans-Atlantic relations between Washington and its traditional core allies in Western Europe, stands very little chance to succeed. Trump’s actions have led to a dilution of trust, with many Europeans calling for an uncoupling from Washington in the defence and security fields, threatening the trans-Atlantic alliance. While the prospects of the Trump administration’s strategy of deepening engagement with Russia remain slim, European governments for their part have long displayed similar misconceptions and naiveté with regard to China. This has led them to constantly pursue deeper integration with Beijing, particularly in the economic sphere, showing little awareness or concern about the strategic risks China is posing to Europe, which have become increasingly conspicuous in recent years. Contrary to the aforementioned policy stances, this article argues that Americans and Europeans alike need to appreciate that, from a geopolitical, ­geostrategic and geo-economic perspective, the Indo-Pacific and the Russian/European theaters are now intrinsically interlinked. Consequently, the US and Europe should enter a grand bargain to preserve the US-Europe alliance and effectively tackle the China-Russia axis.