Demographic Heterogeneities in Electoral Responses to Political Budget Cycles in Brazilian Municipalities

This study examines whether mayors who increase election-year spending improve their reelection chances and how this relationship vary by expenditure type and population characteristics. Using panel probit models for Brazilian municipal elections and COFOG classification, the study found that higher spending on health, recreation, education, and social protection is often associated with a higher likelihood of reelection, that’s accentuated by the populations’ vulnerability (higher illiteracy, lower household income, older population) and by greater urbanization. Two cases of electoral punishment (non-reelection) emerge, associated with increases in expenditures on general public services in municipalities with lowest illiteracy rates and those highly urbanized.