Evolution of Preventive Conservation from a Risk Analysis Perspective

Much progress in the development of preventive conservation has been made over the past 50 years, but major challenges and opportunities remain. Over the past few decades risk analysis has provided a valuable perspective for evaluating and guiding preventive conservation strategies. It has become obvious that the greatest risks to collections are much greater than the average risks and vastly greater than the lowest risks, even though the lowest risks might still be felt to be of concern. It is easy to draw attention to the need to apply incremental resources for risk mitigation to high risks. More difficult is letting go of concern over demonstrably insignificant risks to free resources for mitigating higher risks. Collectively, we must respect, but not be enslaved by, rational quantification. We must pursue precision in quantification to benefit from discipline in evidence seeking and critical thinking yet understand the resulting numbers are necessarily uncertain. Further development of preventive conservation as a distinct profession will require us to appreciate the difference between the role of preventive conservation for small versus medium-large institutions. Finally, perhaps most challenging, we must learn to combine rational quantification at the technical level with accommodating pluralistic world views and value systems.