Construction and empirical analysis of a tourist psychological capacity prediction model for suburban ancient towns based on crowding perception: a case study of Anren, Chengdu

Tourist psychological capacity, a critical dimension of tourism environmental capacity, significantly influences visitor satisfaction. This study develops a methodological framework and predictive model based on crowding perception to estimate this capacity for ancient towns in metropolitan suburbs. Using field survey data from Anren Ancient Town in Chengdu, key findings reveal the following: (1) Psychological capacity is shaped by occupation, travel companions, motivation, expectations, encounter preferences and environmental factors; (2) The instantaneous psychological capacity threshold is 501–800 visitors, with satisfaction peaking at 301–500 individuals; (3) For tour groups, satisfaction is highest with 1–5 concurrent groups, while the threshold spans 6–10 groups; (4) A tiered management framework integrating flow control, spatial restructuring and long-term system development is proposed to enhance capacity. The study provides a replicable analytical tool and crucial baseline data for specific regions, offering practical pathways for the sustainable management of similar heritage destinations.