Using a system dynamics approach to achieve synergy between tourism and conservation

This paper developed a system dynamics model for achieving synergy between conservation and tourism at a mountainous landscape in Fereydounshahr, Iran. The model consisted of four subsystems, including: conservation, tourism, local people and economics. It utilized a comprehensive approach of tourism modelling, in contrast with traditional ones that rely only on historical data. For the first time, different types of visitors and their needs were addressed. Results indicated that the model was most sensitive to ‘hard’ tourist arrivals and overnight stays, conversion of rangeland to farmland, and number of livestock. Scenario analysis over twenty years (2010–2030) showed that if current trends continued, naturalness of tourist destinations in Fereydounshahr would decline along with the number of local people. Assuming a slight improvement of natural resources, an increase in the arrival of hard tourists, and an investment to increase the stay of this group, the loss of natural capital could be slowed by increasing tourism income and employment, thereby stimulating reverse migration of locals from the region. Overall, model results could help destination planners use the best strategy for managing key elements of ecotourism and preserve natural resources while generating income, simultaneously.