Assessing the trends and patterns of extreme climate indices in the different agroecological zones of Sidama region, Ethiopia

Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are profoundly affecting agriculture and rural livelihoods in Ethiopia. However, there is limited empirical evidence on how these extremes vary across agroecological zones (AEZs) and what they mean for smallholder farming systems. This study investigates trends and patterns of extreme climate indices across three AEZs in the Sidama region of Ethiopia, highlighting their implications for smallholder farmers. Using daily precipitation and temperature data from 1985 to 2018, the analysis applied the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator on indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The results show a marked shift in climate extremes, with significant declines in precipitation indices such as total annual rainfall, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation and wet days, while consecutive dry days and warm spells have increased. Temperature-related extremes, including maximum and minimum temperatures, warm days and nights and warm spell duration have risen significantly, particularly in the highland and midland zones. Conversely, cold days and nights have decreased. These changes signal heightened exposure to droughts and erratic rainfall, posing threats such as reduced crop yields, increased crop failure, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss. Highland areas appear especially vulnerable due to their rapid warming. The study concludes by emphasizing the urgency of developing agroecology-specific climate adaptation strategies to support sustainable livelihoods and resilience among smallholder farmers facing growing climate risks in the Sidama region.