Tree canopy cover assessment for urban planning; towards an international model for improving climate adaptation and nature recovery decisions

There is widespread international recognition that trees make places nicer and more comfortable to live in and having more of them contributes to climate adaptation and nature recovery initiatives. However, planting and retaining enough trees to deliver meaningful benefits at the local level is proving challenging due to the demand for high-density housing, and pressures to make development profitable. Static-to-decreasing trends in urban tree canopy cover in the UK are common, often due to poorly informed development decisions that result in tree loss without replacement and new trees failing to compensate for the removals. Urban planning is an effective mechanism for optimising tree canopy cover and its associated benefits, but there is currently no standardised approach to help planners make the most of trees for their communities. Modelling canopy cover into the future is feasible, but complex considerations and a lack of research data hamper it. This paper reviews essential elements for modelling those projections, but further refinement will be necessary as more detailed data on the growth characteristics of local species become available. Despite these limitations, canopy cover analysis remains a valuable tool for organisations seeking to enhance their responses to climate and nature emergencies.