A spatial modeling framework for determining coal-fired power plant retrofit priorities

Determining priorities for retrofitting coal-fired power plants is critical for China's deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to achieve carbon reduction. This study develops a novel, holistic spatial modeling framework that integrates biomass estimation, CO2 reduction potential, and deployment costs to prioritize coal-fired power plant retrofits. This integrated approach not only establishes retrofit priorities but also quantifies marginal carbon dioxide reduction costs, identifies biomass utilization opportunities, and simulates changes in coal-fired power plant generation capacity. In the without resource competition condition, we have obtained the lowest cost for retrofitting each coal-fired power plant. Moreover, in the resource competition condition, 863 coal-fired power plants can be retrofitted, the marginal CO2 reduction cost range is 43–376 ($ (t CO2)−1) and achieving 5.63 Gt a−1 of emissions reductions. The study provides cost-effective prioritization strategies for coal-fired power plant retrofits in China's coal power sector to support carbon reduction.