Determinants of timely graduation in Chilean universities

University graduation in Chile has in recent years become a highly debated topic, stimulated by the low rate of on-time graduation. Today only 16% of all students entering higher education graduate in the time indicated in the study plan. The study uses a discrete time multilevel survival model to analyse the relationship between student’s characteristics, field of study, academic progression, and timely graduation. Data were obtained from the academic records of students in an intentional sample of 10 selective Chilean universities. The data covered the first 16 semesters for all students entering in 2010. Academic progression was measured based on completed credits, failed courses and academic load. The results show the significance of course failure. In the Chilean case, those students who failed only one course during their university career were 20% less likely to graduate on time than those who failed none. The lack of opportunity for students to recover quickly from course failure limits the system’s ability to improve its on-time graduation rate. Flexibilization of the curriculum, providing alternative course sequences, would be helpful to avoid unnecessary delays in graduation.