Riding the wave? The impact of the Russian invasion on MEP behaviour regarding EU enlargement to the Western Balkan countries

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is widely seen as accelerating the ‘return of geopolitics’ in EU policy-making, including in enlargement towards the Western Balkans. This article examines whether this geopolitical shock affected enlargement politics in the European Parliament by analysing written questions from the 9th parliamentary term. Adopting an actor-centred perspective, it assesses changes in issue salience, the actors involved, and the framing of enlargement. Across these dimensions, we find only limited evidence of geopoliticisation. The invasion did not significantly change the level of attention to the Western Balkans or the composition of actors engaging with the issue. Most strikingly, explicit geopolitical or security justifications did not increase. Instead, MEPs placed greater emphasis on candidate states implementing reforms and complying with accession criteria. The invasion is thus reflected less in geopolitical discourse than in a renewed focus on conditionality as a vehicle for advancing the Western Balkans’ accession trajectory.