Spatially dense stochastic epidemic models with infection-age dependent infectivity

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Authors: Guodong Pang, Étienne Pardoux
Cited by: 0
References: 28

Abstract

We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent infectivity function. Individuals are infected through interactions across the locations with heterogeneous effects. The epidemic dynamics can be described using a time-space representation for the total force of infection, the number of susceptible individuals, the number of infected individuals that are infected at each time and have been infected for a certain amount of time, as well as the number of recovered individuals. We prove a functional law of large numbers for these time-space processes, and in the limit, we obtain a set of time-space integral equations. We then derive the PDE models from the limiting time-space integral equations; in particular, the density (with respect to the infection age) of the time-age-space integral equation for the number of infected individuals tracking the age of infection satisfies a linear PDE in time and age with an integral boundary condition. These integral equation and PDE limits can be regarded as dynamics on graphon under certain conditions.

Fields of Study & Subjects

COVID-19 epidemiological studies Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models Evolution and Genetic Dynamics

Publication details

Journal / source
Stochastic Analysis and Applications
Volume
44
Issue
1
Pages
65–116
Publication date
2 January 2026
Language
EN