Spatially dense stochastic epidemic models with infection-age dependent infectivity
Abstract
We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent infectivity function. Individuals are infected through interactions across the locations with heterogeneous effects. The epidemic dynamics can be described using a time-space representation for the total force of infection, the number of susceptible individuals, the number of infected individuals that are infected at each time and have been infected for a certain amount of time, as well as the number of recovered individuals. We prove a functional law of large numbers for these time-space processes, and in the limit, we obtain a set of time-space integral equations. We then derive the PDE models from the limiting time-space integral equations; in particular, the density (with respect to the infection age) of the time-age-space integral equation for the number of infected individuals tracking the age of infection satisfies a linear PDE in time and age with an integral boundary condition. These integral equation and PDE limits can be regarded as dynamics on graphon under certain conditions.
Fields of Study & Subjects
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Stochastic Analysis and Applications
- Volume
- 44
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 65–116
- Publication date
- 2 January 2026
- Language
- EN