A Modified Poisson Mixture Approach to Risk and Intensity of School Violent Victimization, 1976–2023

Violent victimization remains a persistent problem in U.S. schools, yet existing estimates often underestimate its extent due to missing measures of repeat victimization, unspecified risk, and reliance on incident counts. Using 48 waves of nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional data from Monitoring the Future (1976–2023; pooled N = 251,055 12th graders; 46.5% male; 11.5% Black), this study employs modified Poisson mixture models to analyze four types of school violent victimization – threatened or injured, with or without a weapon – measured as grouped and right-censored (GRC) counts. The models estimate incidence and decompose it into risk and intensity. Results reveal that despite declining violent victimization since the 1990s, intensity rises, indicating increased repeat victimization among those at risk. Students from disadvantaged backgrounds – including those from non-intact families and with lower GPAs – are more likely to experience repeat victimization. The findings underscore the persistence of school violence and its role in reproducing social inequality.