Beyond intelligence failure: Identifying the principles of intelligence success in government and private sector risk intelligence

The functions of government intelligence assessment and private sector risk intelligence have many similarities. The work in both sectors involves providing ‘customers’ of intelligence reports with decision-advantage and foresight. The similarities between the two sectors enable the creation of a set of principles for what constitutes intelligence success – an underexplored topic in intelligence studies – which apply to both government intelligence and private sector risk intelligence. Whilst the nature of success differs according to the type of intelligence being studied (strategic vs tactical, current intelligence vs forecasting), it is possible to identify general principles which indicate intelligence success. These principles broadly constitute: intelligence which is not available elsewhere and is relevant to decision-makers; intelligence which gives decision-makers informed options for the future; and intelligence which adds new information to an existing body of knowledge of value to decision-makers. At a time when the geopolitical landscape is increasingly volatile and the Data Age has transformed the availability of information for executives, decision-makers, and policymakers, communication of the value of intelligence has never been more important, both in the public sector and private sector. As a result, clearly identifying the principles of success – as opposed to dwelling on failures – is the key to setting up intelligence practitioners in the public and private sector for success.