From past to future: the impact of climate change on the snake-eyed lizard, Ophisops elegans

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region forms one of the most important hot spots for reptiles and is also expected to experience significant impacts from climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of past and future climate change on the snake-eyed lizard Ophisops elegans in the region. The main hypothesis is that the current distribution of O. elegans is critically limited by minimum temperature and precipitation, and its habitat will contract in the future due to increased warming and aridity. Furthermore, we expect its range during the Last Glacial Maximum to be more reduced and fragmented. To this end, an ecological niche model (ENM) was developed with the Maxent algorithm, with location points from GBIF and bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA dataset, then projected onto past LGM (∼21 kya) and future (2071-2100) scenarios. Results show that the present-day distribution of O. elegans is primarily driven by temperature seasonality and precipitation, indicating a preference for coastal Mediterranean climates with dry summers. The LGM projection suggests a fragmented and contracted range, confined to coastal regions around the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas. Future projections for 2071–2100 show consistent and alarming contraction of suitable habitats under both SSP scenarios.