Weaponized paradiplomacy in and around Taiwan: subnational engagement as strategic tool in Sino-Japanese competition

This paper introduces the concept of weaponized paradiplomacy to explain how subnational governments are mobilized to advance national security objectives when the regional security environment becomes more severe. Contrary to the assumption that diplomacy becomes fully centralized under such conditions, the study shows that local actors can serve as active instruments of state strategy. The paper develops a typology distinguishing genuine weaponized paradiplomacy—locally initiated, autonomous engagement that aligns with national goals—from counterfeit weaponized paradiplomacy—centrally orchestrated outreach that mimics local diplomacy but functions as an extension of state power. Using a comparative case study of Okinawa Prefecture in Japan and Fujian Province in China, the analysis reveals how regime type and central–local relations shape these modalities. Okinawa’s engagement with Taiwan reflects bottom-up initiatives in cultural, economic, and symbolic-security domains that complement Japan’s broader regional stance. Fujian’s activities, by contrast, are top-down measures—including integration projects and United Front-linked religious exchanges—aimed at supporting Beijing’s unification agenda. By linking paradiplomacy to questions of power, deterrence, and sovereignty, the study expands the literature beyond its traditional soft-power framing, highlighting how subnational actors can shape contested regions and influence the evolving strategic environment in East Asia.