China’s household carbon footprints: structural drivers and provincial disparities (2002–2022)

This study tracks the transformation of China’s household carbon footprints from 2002 to 2022, examining urban-rural disparities and regional heterogeneity. Integrating multiregional input–output modeling and structural decomposition analysis, we quantify direct and indirect household emissions and disentangle the roles of fuel switching, energy efficiency, consumption growth, production structure, and interprovincial trade. Results reveal divergent decarbonization trajectories: while aggregate household emissions plateaued after 2017, urban emissions peaked and declined whereas rural emissions continued rising, driven by ongoing energy transitions and lifestyle changes. Residential and transportation sectors have overtaken food as dominant emission sources, signaling fundamental lifestyle shifts. Meanwhile, growing spatial decoupling between consumption and production highlights intensifying interprovincial emission transfers, with affluent regions increasingly outsourcing carbon footprints to industrial provinces. These findings call for differentiated strategies: accelerating rural electrification, strengthening urban demand-side management, and establishing mechanisms to balance production – consumption responsibilities – all essential for China's dual carbon goals.