The impact of Islamic State affiliation on civilian-targeting strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: comparative insights from ISCAP-Mozambique and ISWAP

This article compares two Islamist insurgent movements in sub-Saharan Africa—Nigeria’s Boko Haram (BH) and northern Mozambique’s Ahlu Sunna Wal Jammah (ASWJ)—focusing on civilian targeting before and after their formal affiliation with the Islamic State (IS). BH pledged allegiance in 2015, becoming the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP), while ASWJ followed in 2019–2020, subsequently incorporated into the Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP–Mozambique). Analysing BH (2009–2020) and ASWJ (2017–2024), the article captures violence patterns preceding and following each group’s alignment with IS. The study examines whether significant tactical changes occurred post-incorporation—particularly regarding civilian targets—and whether violence increased, declined, or remained consistent. It also considers the role of external pressure from IS leadership, which reportedly criticised excessive and indiscriminate violence against Muslim civilians as detrimental to the legitimacy and strategic interests of the wider jihadist network. Using a comparative approach, the article assesses the extent to which the operational conduct of these two militant groups shifted after their at least nominal integration into IS.