From kingpins to terrorists: Trump II, cartels as FTOs, and the weaponization of covert action

When Donald Trump returned to office, he revived an expanded repertoire of covert and counterterrorism authorities loosened during his first term. The rendition of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. military in the absence of a declared war or United Nations mandate and decisions to designate Mexican cartels and other transnational criminal organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and illicit fentanyl and its core precursor chemicals as a weapon of mass destruction represent not only a significant escalation in U.S. counternarcotics policy but also a broader reconfiguration of American statecraft. This article situates Trump II’s approach within the longer trajectory of U.S. irregular warfare, shaped by the symbiotic and evolving relationships among armed non-state actors, state adversaries, and U.S. countermeasures. It argues that while the designations respond to genuine hybrid threats, they also serve as coercive theatre – privileging symbolic toughness and political spectacle over sustainable strategic outcomes. By tracing the legal and operational precedents underpinning this shift, the article assesses its implications for U.S.-Mexico relations, the balance between covert and clandestine authorities, and the evolving character of American statecraft in the Gray Zone.