The water and the fish: counterinsurgency models for climate-induced violence

Extreme climate conditions can weaken governance and expand opportunities for violent actors to take control over dwindling resources, yet counterinsurgency (COIN) literature rarely treats climate change as an operational driver. This study introduces a Counterinsurgency Induced by Climate Change (COIN-CC) framework for mitigating organized violence by coupling security studies with climate science. It links resource degradation with increased dependence on non-state providers and illicit economies, and examines how climate data, adaptation training, education, and targeted operations help weaken this link. The framework specifies the limits under which climate-focused counterinsurgency is effective, yielding testable propositions for conflict management during environmental shocks.