Operation Lafiya Dole and the paradox of peace by force: rethinking counterinsurgency and human security in Northeast Nigeria

Operation Lafiya Dole (OPLD) is Nigeria’s longest-running counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign against Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP). It achieved significant territorial gains after its launch in 2015. Yet these military successes coincided with persistent civilian vulnerability, livelihood disruption, and food insecurity in Northeast Nigeria. This paradox raises a central analytical puzzle: why did battlefield progress fail to translate into improved human security outcomes? Drawing on Strategic Interaction Theory (SIT) and Human Security Framework (HSF), this study interrogates the impact of OPLD on human security in Northeast Nigeria, with particularly emphasis on civilian protection, local livelihoods, and food security. Using a theory-guided qualitative case analysis of triangulated secondary data from open-source security reports, scholarly articles, and humanitarian sources, the study identifies a strategic mismatch between the state’s direct, coercive tactics and insurgents’ adaptive indirect strategies targeting civilians and their livelihoods. The study extends SIT beyond battlefield outcomes by foregrounding human security as a core metric of COIN effectiveness, with implications for COIN strategy design and civilian protection in asymmetric conflicts.