Authoritarian Public Opinion, Vividness, and International Crisis Signaling

How can public opinion in an authoritarian state deter or compel adversaries? Existing theories based on rationalist bargaining frameworks suggest that authoritarian domestic audiences are likely to influence bargaining only when leaders are either politically vulnerable or willing to accept the risks of allowing nationalist street protests. This article offers a broader theory of how authoritarian public opinion shapes international crises. Vivid outpourings of mass hostility and anger amplify and draw foreign observers’ attention to coercive threats, while the state’s visible management of public outrage conveys necessary assurances of threat conditionality. A detailed reconstruction of the 2012 Scarborough Shoal crisis demonstrates how a wave of online nationalism helped China deter Philippine resistance to its seizure of a key South China Sea feature.