Do any differences between perceived and professional wildfire risk influence the amount homeowners would pay for public and private fuel reduction?

Wildfire risk has risen significantly due to climate change and the increase in housing development in the wildland urban interface (WUI), making household participation in fuel reduction crucial. However, homeowners’ perceived wildfire risk may diverge from professionals’ objective assessments. We use a choice experiment survey of Arizona homeowners in WUI areas to compare how willingness to pay (WTP) for public and private fuel reduction programs aligns with self-assessed versus professionally determined wildfire risk. Results show that while homeowners’ WTP for fuel reduction is positively correlated with their perceived risk, those living in objectively higher-risk areas—according to professional assessments—are not willing to pay more for either program. This disparity in risk assessment and WTP for fuel reduction may undermine residents’ engagement in mitigation efforts and program effectiveness. We highlight three strategies to better align homeowners’ and professionals’ risk assessments that may help to narrow this gap.