Comparing the benefits of native and novel ecosystems as urban nature-based solutions: a case study of Johannesburg, South Africa

Urban nature-based solutions (NbS) must align with their socio-ecological context, yet there is limited evidence on what should serve as the ecological reference in cities with contrasting native and novel ecosystems. Using Johannesburg, South Africa, as a case study, we compare native, novel, and urban-industrial ecosystems in terms of climate, biodiversity, and well-being benefits, and consider their socio-economic distribution. We combine MODIS daytime land surface temperature (LST), a biodiversity intactness index, and national census datasets at a ward level to run regression models for cross-sectional analysis. Native- and novel-dominated wards are associated with lower LST and higher biodiversity than urban-industrial wards; native wards are also associated with higher overall use of provisioning ecosystem services. Higher income is correlated with cooler wards. These associations suggest that protecting and expanding both the native grassland and the novel tree canopy could inform NbS design to support climate, biodiversity, and human well-being goals in Johannesburg and other similar cities.