Muddy waters: the electoral impact of river pollution from Galamsey in Ghana

This study investigates the political consequences of environmental degradation, specifically river pollution from illegal gold mining (‘Galamsey’), on electoral behaviour in Ghana’s 2024 general elections. Utilising constituency-level data, the research combines propensity score matching with difference-in-differences estimation to assess the political impact. Findings reveal a consistent and statistically significant decline in voter turnout in polluted constituencies, suggesting environmental harm fostered political disengagement. However, effects on party vote share were mixed; while support for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) decreased in some affected regions, others saw increases or no significant change, highlighting regional variations. These results imply that environmental grievances did not uniformly translate into partisan backlash but rather into voter withdrawal. The study contributes to environmental politics by quantifying ecological degradation’s effect on political participation, demonstrating the mediation of voting patterns by local political economies, and emphasising ecological issues beyond traditional ethnic and elite political frameworks in African politics.