Regional resilience as a foresight approach: conceptualization and the case of the German Rhineland region

The regional resilience notion conceptualizes capacities of regional economies to withstand and recover from shocks or crises. This paper proposes to combine the concept with aspects of foresight, interpreting dimensions of resilience as a bridge between past and future trends. We also highlight the importance to considering particularly versatile industry fields when regional economies need to cope with a restructuring shock, suggesting that bioeconomy sectors offer good scope for foreseeing resilient futures. Based on conceptual considerations, a methodology is suggested that analyses factors of spatially differing resilience capacities in the past and links them to scenario building. This approach is employed to empirically identify relevant factors of resilience and explore how bioeconomy activities could support the future industrial restructuring of the Rhineland Region, Germany (research in 2022/23, using 41 resilience indicators, 52 expert interviews). Three conceptually grounded scenarios are suggested and discussed with respect to viability and policy recommendations.