A comparative assessment of the efficacy of rural depopulation policies in Spain: a system dynamics approach

Depopulation in rural areas has become a critical issue in Europe. We examine the efficacy of rural development policies aimed at addressing depopulation, focusing on two case studies in Spain: Cinco Villas and Pirineo Navarro. Although both territories have been affected by depopulation, they exhibit structural differences in their population size, geographical concentration, and age structure, leading to distinct depopulation challenges. To conduct the study, we employed SPANDAM, a system dynamics model specifically designed to represent the multidimensionality of depopulation phenomena and to analyse the effects of various drivers – such as economic activity, infrastructure, and service provision – on long-term demographic trends. We designed a policy intervention scenario centred on improving service provision and infrastructure, as well as the economic situation of the population, and simulated its effects in both case–study regions. We find that initial structural and demographic conditions are decisive in shaping policy outcomes. Cinco Villas, larger and with a denser population, demonstrates a greater capacity to reverse depopulation trends compared to Pirineo Navarro, where a smaller, more dispersed, and older population renders policy interventions less effective. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring rural development strategies to specific characteristics of each region to achieve sustainable and impactful results.