The geography of exclusion: cumulative causation and the persistence of lagging regions

This paper examines why regional disparities persist across Europe despite decades of cohesion-oriented policy intervention. Drawing on cumulative causation theory and New Economic Geography, it argues that lagging regions are not temporarily underperforming but structurally excluded from key interregional flows of goods, services, capital, labour and knowledge. These exclusion mechanisms reinforce demographic decline, weak innovation capacity, and limited market integration, creating self-perpetuating cycles of disadvantage. Using a multiple case study approach, the paper analyzes qualitatively three regions – Alentejo (Portugal), Epirus (Greece), and Norra Mellansverige (Sweden) – selected for their simultaneous deficits across human capital, investment, accessibility and innovation. The findings reveal that market-driven development strategies systematically favour already-advantaged metropolitan centres, while policy frameworks often underestimate the scale of structural barriers facing lagging regions. The paper concludes that addressing persistent regional inequality requires sustained public investment, strengthened social overhead capital, and a reorientation of regional policy towards territorial cohesion rather than competitiveness alone.