Disruptive technology and the high-risk/high-gain logic: societal impacts of European rearmament

This article investigates how Europe’s post-2022 rearmament is reshaping the role of emerging and disruptive technologies through a high-risk/high-gain logic that increasingly blurs civilian–military boundaries, in effect reconceptualising how Europe approaches defence innovation. European policymakers, industry actors and research institutions are responding to today’s evolving security challenges by intensifying efforts to expand dual-use innovation and military research and development (R&D). Yet, this strategic turn has outpaced a critical examination of its wider societal implications. Building on academic debates on the dual-use dilemma, military isomorphism, liminality and disruption, this article maps the rapid emergence of a European defence-tech ecosystem comprising startups, research consortia and research hubs. These developments are taking place in a liminal phase marked by uncertainty and ambiguity, where Europe finds itself away from a recent state of peace and security, but is unsure of what comes next. This article highlights significant risks, including the militarisation of basic research, democratic accountability gaps and the expanding influence of private tech actors on security governance. This article argues that Europe’s pursuit of high-reward technological disruption must be balanced with robust democratic oversight to prevent that rearmament efforts destabilise European societies.