Eve of Disruption: Decarbonisation and the Changing Salience of Oil in Petrostate Conflicts
Abstract
As the world transitions away from oil, the future for petrostates is uncertain. This article makes two arguments: first, petrostates may become aggressive in existing conflicts to take advantage of economic and military asymmetries; second, oil may be losing its strategic salience. Analysing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, I illustrate the changing role of oil between the first and second Karabakh wars, positing that uncertainty over a post-oil future affected Azerbaijan’s behaviour in 2020, incentivising aggressive military action without being a driver of external actor dynamics. I validate this case with analysis of the Essequibo conflict between Venezuela and Guyana.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Natural Resources and Economic Development
Post-Soviet Geopolitical Dynamics
Global Energy Security and Policy
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Europe Asia Studies
- Volume
- 78
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 214–239
- Publication date
- 7 February 2026
- Language
- EN