Citizen responses to economic statecraft: evidence from Australia

Economic coercion has become an increasingly common occurrence on the world stage. However, how targeted populations respond to it in the attitudinal realm remains understudied. This is problematic given the constraining effects of public opinion over foreign policy. In this article, we examine how citizens’ stances toward the state initiating coercion are shaped by (1) material exposure to its economic fallout and (2) information regarding that fallout. Focusing on Australia, a recent target of coercive trade measures implemented by China, we combine observational public opinion survey data collected by the Australian Election Study (AES) with an original experiment carried out on 2,002 Australian residents in 2024. We find limited evidence that broadly defined local trade exposure generates divergent post-coercion attitudes. By contrast, clearer shifts in threat perceptions emerge among respondents residing in communities highly exposed to industries directly targeted by coercive measures. Experimental evidence shows that information highlighting economic consequences exerts a stronger and more consistent influence on threat perceptions and support for trade diversification. This suggests that, when trying to gauge countries’ responses to economic coercion, domestic media and political narratives should be assessed as much as material economic impacts.