Reconfiguring defence supply chains: procurement dynamics, inter-organizational dependence, and resilience under geopolitical uncertainty

The war in Ukraine has reshaped the European defence market, triggering a surge in procurement that has created unprecedented pressure on defence supply chains. Historically structured around small-batch, cost-efficient production optimised for predictable peacetime demand, the European defence industry now faces the dual challenge of meeting urgent short-term operational needs while sustaining long-term technological and industrial capability. This study examines how this post-2022 procurement surge has affected the supply chains of the defence industry in Sweden, a sector characterised by private ownership, an international customer base. Drawing on 45 semi-structured interviews conducted in 2022 and 2024 with senior representatives from four major defence firms, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration, and the Swedish Armed Forces, the study employs an abductive approach and thematic content analysis to identify key shifts in procurement practices and supply chain dynamics. The findings reveal mounting production bottlenecks, extended lead times, and intensified dependence on subcontractors, alongside emerging, but still largely informal, customer expectations regarding security of supply in the absence of binding contractual conditions. The study contributes to theory by demonstrating how procurement dynamics shape supply chain resilience in monopsonistic markets and highlights the need for new contractual mechanisms to balance peacetime efficiency with wartime scalability.