Divergent responses, convergent outcomes: EU and South Korean strategies towards Trump’s trade policy, 2017–2020

Donald Trump’s protectionist turn posed critical challenges for allies embedded in global supply chains. This article compares the European Union’s strategy of rules-based resistance with South Korea’s strategic accommodation regarding the Section 232 tariffs. Despite divergent approaches, economic outcomes proved strikingly similar, as neither resistance nor accommodation significantly altered bilateral trade structures or US deficits. This convergence is attributed to deeply embedded supply chains, the limited efficacy of tariff coercion, and US domestic constraints. However, political consequences differed markedly: the EU accelerated its drive for strategic autonomy, whereas South Korea reinforced asymmetric security dependence. Drawing on these insights, the study argues that the structural economic nationalism of Trump 2.0 renders previous singular strategies insufficient. Instead, the article proposes a hybrid framework – combining selective resistance, targeted accommodation, and long-term diversification – as the optimal path for middle powers navigating an increasingly volatile US trade environment.