How China, the ROK, and DPRK Balance Each Other’s Security Interests: Dynamic Analysis of Conflict and Cooperation

This article draws on typological approaches to trilateral relations to construct three models characterising the China–South Korea–North Korea triangle. These models – the confrontational alignment model, mediation model, and limited cooperation model – represent different patterns of interaction within this trilateral relationship. To understand why and how these models evolve, the article employs a level-of-analysis framework that identifies key explanatory variables at three interrelated dimensions: systemic, processual, and unit-level factors. By integrating international structure, interactional processes, and domestic actor attributes, this framework reveals the complex dynamics shaping trilateral relations. Given intensified US–China strategic rivalry and North Korea’s accelerated nuclear development, this combined approach highlights emerging and evolving characteristics in China–South Korea–North Korea relations.