Timing of cloud computing and big data adoption: cohort characteristics and firm performance

This paper examines which firms adopt cloud computing and big data, when they adopt them, and how adoption timing affects firm performance. While previous research has established a positive link between digital technologies and firm outcomes, the role of adoption timing and managerial characteristics remains underexplored. Using matched Portuguese firm-level data – ICT surveys, financial statements, and employer–employee records – we estimate multinomial logit models to characterize adoption cohorts. Firm performance impacts are evaluated with fixed-effects and long-difference regressions reweighted by propensity scores. Firms with more highly educated managers and workers, and those with shorter managerial tenure, are more likely to adopt early, especially for big data. Cloud computing leads to performance gains for early adopters, with no clear first mover advantage or strong interaction with managerial characteristics. Big data adoption also raises firms' performance, but its effects are more capability-dependent: benefits are amplified by stronger human capital, and early adopters keep a lasting edge in productivity and value added. These results show how the complexity of digital technologies determines the extent to which timing and internal capabilities shape their effects on firm performance.