Risk and Protective Factors for Child Sexual Abuse: A Comparison of 2013 and 2022

Researching the risk and protective factors for child sexual abuse (CSA) is important for developing CSA-prevention methods. However, research regarding the changes in the significance of these factors over time is scarce. This current study examined the risk and protective factors for CSA in 2022 and compared them to those recorded in 2013. It was based on Finnish child victim surveys conducted in 2013 and 2022 with representative samples of Finnish sixth and ninth graders. Logistic regression models and average marginal effects were used to compare the risk factors between the samples. Data was used first in the context of separate samples and then combined to better establish the between-year differences by analyzing moderation effect of time. Being assigned female at birth, substance use, and having experienced physical abuse at home were the most focal variables in 2013 and 2022. Differences in risk factors were also found among samples. In 2022, the younger age, having witnessed physical domestic violence, spending time in public, and guardians' awareness of with whom their child spent time were no longer associated with CSA. Having special needs was associated with experiencing CSA in 2022 but not in 2013. This association seemed to be explained through moderative effects of time. Sixth grade and spending time in public were also moderated through time. These results suggest that changes in risk factors for CSA may occur over time. Therefore, updated research on such factors should be used to target at-risk children.