Assessing a Decade of Indonesia’s Forest Moratorium: Unintended Benefits on Poverty and Climate Disasters with Difference-in-Differences Analysis

This study examines the impact of Indonesia’s 2011 forest moratorium on poverty levels and climate disasters using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach, combining remote sensing data from Global Forest Watch with longitudinal microdata from the Indonesia Village Potential Survey (PODES) (2008–2021). The results show that the forest moratorium generally increased poverty levels, as it restricted income opportunities for communities dependent on forest resources, especially in the eastern part of Indonesia. However, the policy also had a positive impact on poverty reduction in the central region, where forest conditions and local economic factors were more favorable. Regarding climate disasters, the moratorium significantly reduced the frequency of floods, severe floods, landslides, and forest fires, highlighting the role of forest conservation in mitigating environmental degradation. The study suggests several policy recommendations, including strengthening monitoring of forest permits, enhancing local capacity-building programs, and improving governance to ensure the moratorium’s success and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals.