Catastrophe Theory and Transitology: A Framework for Understanding National Engagement in International Large-Scale Assessments

In “Comparing Futures or Comparing Pasts”, Cowen criticizes current theories for being static, depending on notions of equilibrium, and being able only to incorporate a limited range of dimensions. He argues instead that there should be efforts to study transitions, with the belief that features of educational systems are revealed in processes of sudden change that remain hidden when those systems are not changing, or changing only slowly. This paper takes inspiration from Cowen’s idea of “transitologies” which he presents as part of a critique of comparative education’s failure to deal with non-linear systems. This paper takes up the challenge of representing non-linear relationships between different aspects of systems. It suggests that catastrophe theory offers an interpretation of changes in educational policy that go at least some way toward the demands that Cowen makes of future theory. Catastrophe theory is presented and described, and illustrated using the decisions made in countries to join or leave the OECD PISA programme.