The Rise and Fall of a New Cold War: The US–China Great Power Rivalry from President Trump I to II

President Trump’s second term has prioritized trade dealmaking while avoiding criticism of China’s political system or its geopolitical ambitions, thereby defusing the new Cold War that his first administration helped ignite. This article argues that this shift was not structurally predetermined. Rather, it reflected Trump’s recalibrated policy priorities after consolidating near-total control over the Republican Party, as well as his personal attitudes toward China’s leader. Although the resulting strategic stability is fragile and may prove temporary, the rise and fall of the new Cold War illustrates that structural tensions do not inevitably lead to confrontation. While the given balance of power shapes the broader environment, leaders matter. Their policy priorities, personal perceptions, and political incentives can shift the trajectory of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship.