Divergent Pathways to “Digital China”: Unveiling Provincial Digital Agendas Under Top-Level Design

The ‘Digital China’ initiative sets an ambitious vision for national digital transformation, yet provincial priorities vary widely. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), this article examines when Chinese provincial governments prioritize digitalization. It shows that provincial digital agendas are shaped not simply by central directives, but by the interaction of policy incentives, local leadership, and regional capacity. Only a small group of provinces—usually national pilots with strong fiscal and digital foundations—pursue broad and ambitious digital strategies. Most instead concentrate on one or two subfields, reflecting limited capacity or political commitment. These patterns suggest that the soft incentives built into the ‘Digital China’ strategy may widen regional inequalities in digital development.