A Fifth Face? The Evolving Threat of Nuclear Terrorism in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) presents an underexamined challenge to nuclear security. This article analyzes AI’s impact on the threat of nuclear terrorism, asking whether nuclear security simply needs to be updated for the AI age or whether the arrival of this transformative technology poses a more fundamental shift in the threat. The article approaches this research question by reevaluating the “four faces of nuclear terrorism” typology introduced by Charles D. Ferguson and William C. Potter––widely accepted as the orthodox framework in the field of nuclear security. The article argues that while AI substantially raises nuclear terrorism risks, it does so as a cross-cutting enabler, not as a wholly new conceptual “fifth face.” AI technologies can lower technical and logistical thresholds for nonstate actors seeking nuclear capabilities by enhancing intelligence analysis, automating complex design modeling, and facilitating covert procurement. These features amplify preexisting risk vectors of nuclear terrorism. As such, the transformative power of AI calls into question the skeptics’ position in the scholarship: that practical difficulties of mounting a nuclear terrorist attack render such threats distant hypotheticals. The article also demonstrates how AI could increase the plausibility of scenarios like the sabotage of nuclear facilities or the detonation of a radiological “dirty bomb.” Ultimately, this analysis highlights that the AI age necessitates a fundamental reassessment of nuclear terrorism risk frameworks. Proactive adaptation of counterterrorism strategies is essential for addressing this evolving threat landscape.