Famine imprints and time preference: Evidence from Chinese mayors

This study explores how early-life exposure to severe resource scarcity influences the debt financing decisions of urban mayors through the formation of imprints. Using China’s Great Famine (1959–1961) as a natural experiment, we find that early-life famine exposure leads mayors to increase the issuance of Urban Construction Investment Bonds (UCIBs), with these funds specifically directed toward debt repayment rather than infrastructure or social welfare projects. Importantly, we demonstrate that different career paths modify these decision-making patterns: military service weakens the impact of early imprints through alternative cognitive frameworks, while youth league experience amplifies the original psychological mechanisms. Our findings demonstrate how early-life exposure to severe resource scarcity shapes time preferences in leadership decision-making, while revealing the critical role of subsequent career experiences in either reinforcing or reconstructing these imprints.