The Future of Publication Ethics in University Research Systems: What Scenarios Exist for Publication Ethics?

This study conducts a foresight analysis on publication ethics within the policymaking framework of Iran’s Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology (MSRT). Both exploratory and normative approaches were employed. The research community included actors and stakeholders within MSRT. A researcher-designed questionnaire and a 24 × 24 cross-impact analysis matrix were used to identify the drivers of publication ethics. Results showed that 89 components across political, economic, social, technological, institutional, ethical, and legal trends influence the future of publication ethics. Five key drivers were highlighted: “Meritocracy in the Research System,” “Raising Awareness of Publication Ethics Concepts in Media and Social Networks,” “Awakened Conscience in Research,” “Combating Superficiality in Research,” and “Managing Anomic Situation of Research.” The findings suggest that granting universities greater autonomy and strengthening the role of research intermediaries, such as information centers, academic communities, associations, and libraries, can foster self-regulation and ethical thinking. This promotes a healthy research culture while reducing reliance on punitive laws.