Integrating landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service value for ecological zoning and scenario simulation in the Yellow River Basin

Ecological zoning enables differentiated governance and targeted protection of watershed ecosystems. This approach helps identify ecological functional heterogeneities, guides efficient resource allocation, and strengthens ecosystem resilience for sustainable development. This study analyses changes in landscape ecological risks (LER) and ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 1990 to 2020. Using Z-score normalization, four ecological zones were delineated, and the spatial patterns of ecoregions under different scenarios in 2030 were simulated with the PLUS model. The results show that LER, initially high and extremely high, declined and shifted towards low and extremely low values. ESV first fluctuated but then increased steadily, although areas with low and extremely low values continued to dominate. The spatial heterogeneity between LER and ESV decreased over time. Among the ecological zones, the management zones, the largest in the YRB, declined by 4.34%, whereas restoration zones saw the most notable increase (3.29%) despite their smaller size. By 2030, the spatial distribution of ecological zones is projected to remain broadly consistent with that of 2020. In the context of ecological land protection, restoration, and biodiversity conservation zones are projected to expand, thereby mitigating ecological risks across the basin. The results provide a scientific basis for developing targeted strategies for the conservation and management of the river basin ecosystem.