Stringency of government COVID-19 policies and price transmission along Turkish beef supply chains

This study is the first to examine how government-imposed COVID-19 policies shaped vertical price dynamics in Türkiye’s beef markets, using a unique dataset that integrates the COVID-19 Government Stringency Index into a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM). The findings show that stringent pandemic policies generally increased the speed at which retail prices adjust towards wholesale price levels, strengthening vertical linkages in most beef markets. This outcome contrasts with findings from North America, where pandemic disruptions temporarily weakened short-run price transmission. In Türkiye, policy environment appears to have improved the short-run adjustment in otherwise weakly integrated markets. Ankara remains an exception, reflecting its more rigid and state-mediated meat supply structure. Overall, the results highlight how pandemic-era policy regimes can alter price transmission patterns in ways that depend on underlying market structures.