New momentum for China’s industrial structure upgrading: the role logic and innovation pathways of new quality productivity

On the basis of panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2023, this study employs the CRiteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) method to measure new quality productivity, constructs technological innovation trajectory indicators using a binary framework of innovation continuity, and empirically analyses the nonlinear relationship and intrinsic mechanisms between new quality productivity and industrial structure upgrading. The results reveal a U-shaped relationship between the two; disruptive innovation has a stronger mediating effect, whereas incremental innovation has diminishing marginal returns. This research provides empirical evidence that middle-income economies can overcome the middle-technology trap and achieve industrial structure upgrading.