Cultural superstition and insider opportunism: evidence from Chinese zodiac years and stock sales

This study examines how beliefs related to the Chinese zodiac year influence chairmen’s stock-selling decisions. Findings reveal a counterintuitive pattern: perceptions of bad luck associated with the zodiac year do not deter risk-taking with respect to legal constraints but instead increase risk aversion towards market volatility and facilitate the opportunistic exploitation of private information. Specifically, chairmen are more likely to sell and execute larger trades during their zodiac year, often pre-emptively ahead of price declines. The effect is stronger in superstitious regions, among male chairmen, and in firms facing negative news. This research highlights how cultural superstition shapes insider trading behaviour and influences market efficiency.