Does the e-CNY pilot boost consumption upgrading? Evidence from China’s city-level quasi-experiment

This study provides city-level empirical analysis that retail Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are associated with consumption upgrading across multiple dimensions. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework and panel data from 274 Chinese prefectural cities (2012–2023), it finds China’s e-CNY pilot expands consumption scale, optimizes consumption structure, and elevates consumption quality. Regional economic development mediates these positive effects, while excessive fiscal subsidies weaken them and greater financial technology depth strengthens them. The results offer insights for designing programmable CBDCs to boost consumption-led economic growth without fiscal monetization risks.