Towards praetorian-led electoral authoritarianism? Examining the post-coup transitions in francophone Africa

The recent military coups in Chad (2021), Mali (2020 and 2021), Burkina Faso (2021), Guinea (2021), Niger (2023), and Gabon (2023) have raised longstanding questions about the role of African militaries in democratization processes. Drawing on the existing literature, open-source data, and field research in all six coup-affected countries, the article provides the first conceptual and empirical analysis of the post-military coup transitions processes across francophone Africa. It demonstrates that the recent coup surge in the region is quantitatively and qualitatively different from previous post-1990 post-coup transitions. Subsequently, it assesses the capacity of each junta to secure long-term access to executive power, and whether they face viable opposition from within their militaries-at large, organized civil society, and external powers pushing for a return to civilian democratic rule. The juntas’ greatest challenge in consolidating their access to executive power arises from their militaries. Organized civil society and external democracy promotors hold no effective leverage over their polities’ post-transition trajectories. The article advances hypotheses about the direction of post-coup transition outcomes and serves as the point of departure for future actor-centric studies about the effects of coups on future political regime developments.